Overall point here:
Diontae Johnson - Steelers
His numbers last season should have been significantly better — a league-leading 14 drops left a lot of meat on the bone. But drops are a volatile data point that come and go by season, and Johnson is unlikely to be burned as badly in that area going forward.
And I love this quote from Matt Harmon in his RP write up of Johnson: "if you’re dinging for Johnson for his drop rate (10.6 percent), you better keep that same energy for universally beloved young receivers with Reception Perception drop rates in the same neighborhood like A.J. Brown (10.6 percent), DK Metcalf (11 percent) and D.J. Moore (11.3 percent). The public just remembers Johnson’s drops because they happened in big primetime games where everyone was watching. It’s a negativity bias"
Betting on Johnson is betting on talent. He's the go-to guy in the passing attack and I think there's a ton of room to improve on efficiency this year in his game.
Kenny Golladay - Giants
I mean he becomes the immediate alpha in his offense. This is the first time Jones has a legitimate player to force the ball to when he's under pressure. I think it helps lead to a ton fewer interceptions and fumbles. Instead of holding the ball, for fucking Sterling Shepard, he can just chuck it up to Golladay.
Golladay's ceiling might be capped in this offense, but like Diggs last year, what if he just rips off 140+ targets. We saw what he did in 2018 and 2019 with on 119 and 116 targets, 16 TDs overall and over 1100 yards/season. I think 120-1100-8 makes a ton of sense this year and those are easily mid WR2 numbers.
Golladay is a baller downfield and while you don't think of Danny Jones as a big-time thrower downfield he ranked very highly on deep balls last year in efficiency, accuracy, etc.
Cooper Kupp + Robert Woods - Rams
So, it's an unpopular opinion at this point to have Kupp ranked above Robert Woods.
A lot of it comes down to what I think will happen in the TD category. 2 years removed from ACL tear
Kupp is going to see an increase, Woods a decrease Woods' 10zone targets have stayed relatively low every year. He's not a big part of their game plan down there. Kupp, however almost always is. Last year, we saw those numbers dip, he scored 3 touchdowns and saw 5 10-zone targets. Lower than the number he saw in 2018 when he played in 8 games.
- Inside the opponent's 10-yard line the Rams threw the ball 31% of the time, 2nd lowest rate in the entire NFL. Only NE was lower, obviously bc of Cam
Now call me crazy, but maybe that's geared towards the fact that McVay trusted Goff less and less as the years went by.
With Stafford under center, this offense will be so much better, more scoring, more trust from McVay that results in more passing when their might be scoring and I think that overall helps Kupp the most.
It feels like we're never going to get a 10+ catch TD season out of Woods, but we might get it out of Kupp. They're going to be similar in targets and receptions probably.
They added both DJax and Tutu Atwell, the speed guys which gives Kupp space to operate in and out of zones.
Stafford's had good success targeting slot guys over the year - Golden Tate, even Danny Amendola