Saquon Barkley - New York Giants
This is for the homies that will draft Saquon in the top 5, dare I say 3 picks this year. Again - this video is a shoutout to your idiot leaguemates. Yall aren't idiots.
There's just no reason to take on the risk with Saquon that early when there are other bust-proof picks up top there.
At the end of the day, the only thing going for Saquon this year is his freak athleticism.
He's one year removed from an ACL tear and based on all reports is clearly not 100%, otherwise we wouldn't keep hearing reports about him. We don't know if he'll be ready for Week 1, and if he is, there's a really good chance he's limited. But i don't think enough people are factoring in everything else.
Their offense might stink - by just about every single metric and ranking going into 2021, the Giants have a bottom 3 offensive line, a lot of places have them as the absolute worst line in the league.
Kenny G is already banged up, Daniel Jones might legitimately just STINK as this offense might too - they averaged 17.5 PPG last year, 31st in the NFL only the Jets were worst.
There are so many red flags for Saquon right now, and the only light at the end of the tunnel is his athleticism. Im gonna go ahead and bank on that in 2022, not in 2021. Definitely not in the top 5.
Michael Thomas - New Orleans Saints
I can only say this so many times.
Idk what's going on with MT and the Saints but it's ugly.
- Basically the timeline was like he messed up his ankle last year obviously.
- The offseason hit, and he opted to rest & rehab rather than get surgery, which is fine, his body, his choice right #MeTooMichael movement
- But he went complete ghost on the Saints team and medical staff for a few months, showed up to the facility and the ankle wasn't taken care of or healthy and THEN decided to have the surgery on it.
- Now there are reports of fights happening, of trade rumors (which aren't happening)
- the relationship seems ugly there.
- Then Thomas like usual got in his feels, subtweeting like he's a 16 year old girl
- MT the cringe gawd
- All of this, realistically is the minor concern here.
The major concern is the literal injury.
This is a 12-16 week timetable to return. That's a huge rehab. And you already know all next summer we're just going to hear Michael Thomas is a buy low bc he wasn't 100% healthy in 2021. Then don't draft him in 2021.
For the 200th time this summer, don't find injuries in fantasy football, because they're going to find you.
The problem with drafting a guy like Thomas isn't just the timetable to return, which all the fanboys will just use the bottom benchmark 12 weeks, say he's going to be 100% the minute Week 12 starts and be done with it, is that his reinjury risk is so much higher than other players, it's the weeks that he does finally become active, bc he's Michael Thomas you feel the need to have him in your lineup and then he plays 40% of the snaps, then 60%, then he re-injures the ankle in the third week. It's all of this that you guys dont factor in. So, maybe he's active by Week 9, maybe he's not, but he probably can't be confidently started in your lineup until like Week 11, 12, 13.
I'm telling you this is just bad news.
If you're inside the single-digit round of your draft, don't even think about it.
Even round 10, 11, im probably looking elsewhere - at guys that can actually help your team during the season. If Thomas drops to like the 12th, 13th, 14th, and you have I.R. Spot sure, but some idiot in your league is going to see Michael Thomas, say some dumb shit like see you in the playoffs as he walks up to the board and draft a guy that's barely going to play this year.
Hard fade. Off my board.
Kareem Hunt - Cleveland Browns
Outside of like a full ACL tear for Nick Chubb, last year was like the best case scenario for Kareem Hunt as the backup running back. All off-season was lke you get standalone value + an RB1 if Nick Chubb gets hurt. Up to that point, Chubb played in 32-of-32 games in the NFL, so it was a bad bet with little evidence to support it, but it happened, Chubb missed 4 games.
Nothing changed. At all. Technically averaged fewer FPs/game without Chubb somehow.
All u hardos out there gonna be like you're getting the RB1. Hunt finished last year as the RB10 overall last year. In fantasy points per game? He was the RB21.
WHILE SCORING 11 TOUCHDOWNS.
I mean. He has a little less TD luck, like 11 TDs for a backup is crazy. Say Hunt has the same touch total - 235 touches - same efficiency whatever, still 50 targets but scores 8 TDs instead of 11, he's like the RB30 in PPG.
In the 5th round, let whoever drafted Chubb draft Kareem Hunt as his "handcuff". Hunt ain't a backup. Handcuffs are car insurance to your ferrari. Paying up for Kareem Hunt isn't car insurance, it's buying a whole ass car.
Raheem Mostert - San Francisco 49ers
Raheem Mostert is one of, if not the most explosive back in the NFL. I'd love him to occupy a roster spot on my favorite NFL team. No one is yelling otherwise.
You guys, making up fake narratives, all the time:
But this guy has more red flags than the Soviet Union.
- He's 29 years old
- Has never topped 137 carries in a season
- Has never topped 16 catches in a season
- Has appeared in more than 9 games once in 6 NFL seasons.
- Over the last three years he's dealt with a shoulder strain, arm fracture, knee sprain and high ankle sprain. He's already dealing with a knee injury & wearing a brace at training camp
- He weighs 186lbs
In 2020, Mostert turned 6 goal-line carries into 0 scores and -2 rushing yards (Jeff Wilson converted 4-of-8 GL carries into tugs).
Trey Sermon, the 49ers 3rd round pick this year, is the most talented, bigger back the Niners have had on their roster since Carlos Hyde in 2017. Every report has Sermon contributing to this offense immediately, and in a big way. Sermon outweighs Mostert by nearly 30lbs. Figuring out who the GL back in SF will be this year doesn't take a fuckin rocket scientist. I truly believe that Sermon has workhorse upside. Maybe it doesn't come to fruition during his rookie campaign, but I think he's good enough to limit Mostert to a 10-touch per game role immediately. Can Mostert turn 10 carries into a 10-92-2 line? Sure, but I'm not here to throw my chips on the green square of the roulette table every time I gamble.
I understand that Mostert is fun to watch and has had some terrifyingly good fantasy days over the last few seasons, but taking him in the 7th/8th round of fantasy drafts is asking for more disappointment than sending a DM to Zendaya. In the same vein that we like to blindly throw the term "upside" at receivers because they're fast, we do the same with guys like Mostert. Objectively, Mostert is an injury-riddled 186lb running back that is neither the team's primary pass-catching or goal-line back. Dogs....
Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs
If you're in a 1QB league - just dont. He's going to be taken in the 3rd round. Just take Kyler in the 5th.
In superflex, don't take him 1.01 - take Cmac.
That's it.