Running Back

I don't need to waste my time telling you guys that Cmac and Saquon are going to bounce back. Cmac is 1.01 and Saquon is like the 4th pick off the board. Austin Ekeler also just isn't a guy people are shying away from, he's going about where he should be imo.

I was going to throw Zeke into this category, but he seems to be going a little bit lower on some platforms and in SF leagues, he's going to drop into the late 1st if not 2nd round.

So, Zeke is easily my #1 on this list fo the running back position.

Ezekiel Elliott - Dallas Cowboys

I've talked about him ad naseum but with Dak byke under center, there's not reason Zeke won't smash this year.

Maybe they're not the ELITE like top-3 offensive line they had been for most of Zeke's career - but PFF has them ranked as the 6th best offensive line heading into 2021. 

The Cowboys’ starting tackle duo of La’el Collins and Tyron Smith combined for 154 snaps during the 2020 season after starting center Travis Frederick retired in March, citing his battle with Guillain-Barré syndrome. All-Pro right guard Zack Martin started just nine games this past year. They have their guys byke, outside of T Freddy. 

Which means Zeke who is on year 2 of a $90M contract. If you think he's lost any sauce to Tony Pollard you're out of your brain.

The rushing numbers will be there bc of the line, the scoring opportunities will be there because Dak is byke, they averaged 32.6 PPG in Dak's 5 starts last year, that would pace the NFL. Zeke was on pace for over 99 targets in the 5 Dak starts.

So draft, Zeke, draft him confidently and we're gonna party like it's fuckin 2017 again.

 

Joe Mixon - Cincinatti Bengals

Current ADP: RB11 | 15.9 (Underdog)

Mixon is a mid 2nd round pick right now, bit lower in SF. On most sites, he's RB12 or later. I think that is actually his floor. I know I hate when people say that, but I think it's okay when you can acknowledge that he's not going to be an elite option - i think there's a very very high chance, more likely than not he finished somewhere between RB7-RB12. You have to ask yourself if I'm drafting the RB11, do I want someone that has a ceiling of RB1, 2 or 3, but is riskier? That's a whole another strategy video but I think Mixon will have a really really strong year.

Why don't I think Mixon has that ceiling. Their offense, the scoring opportunities, their offensive line, and at the end of the day guys Mixon just hasn't been that good of a running back overall - elusiveness, breakaway runs all that. But most of that can be drowned out when you're the 3-down guy. Which brings us to what we like about him.

If you're fading Mixon this year, you're doing it because you're worried about an injury. Which I suppose is fair given the 6 games played last year, but he played a full 16 before that so to say he's injury prone would be dumb. Based off of everything I've looked at from last year and the 10 games he missed it's not an injury we need to worry about for 2021 and beyond.

Mixon was a pretty easy fade last year because Gio was there. He was still taking way too many targets and plays during passing situations.

Gio is gone now. The rest of the backfield is scrubs - Samaje Perine, Trayveon Williams, Chris Evans. Like no one that catches the ball better than Mixon.

This shouldn't be news.

Mixon has a 208 touch, 280 touch and 313 touch seasons on his resume. So we might get a 350+ touch season out of Mixon. Mixon, when healthy always got a shit ton of carries, Gio or not, as long as he was healthy. If we start adding more targets/receptions, we're going to be looking good here.

With Burrow possibly banged up I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of 20+ carry games for Mixon over the 1H of the year. This line, while I don't think it's incredible is definitely a bit improved. They signed Riley Rieff, used their 2nd 4th and 6th round pick on OL. 

Don't forget, Joe Mixon just got a 4-year extension for nearly $50M. It's time they unleash him. I'm in on Mixon bouncing byke this year. 

 

David Johnson - Houston Texans

FIRST & FOREMOST 

According to oddsmakers, Watson is +900 to start a game in 2021. Oh boy.

Should you be drafting anyone on this Houston team, probably not.

But I imagine this team is going to be similar to the Bengals, two years ago when Dalton got hurt. And they literally fed Mixon 30 carries/game just to kill clock and not get beat 45-0 every game. It didn't stop that from happening, but DJ might be forced into a high-volume role and believe it or not, I think he's. got some left in the tank.

I'm well aware that David Johnson make actually average 1.6 yards per carry. But he's also going to average 1.6 ypc on carries from the 1 yard line. He's going to get 100% of the 4 GL carries they get in 2021.

As a team with a win total from Vegas of 4.5, there are going to be targets going around. And not just a win total of 4.5, but this defense is going to be atrocious, so they're going to  be playing in catchup mode for 80% of their season. They brought in Mark Ingram who's prime is dated back to pre-covid days, and Philip Lindsay who will be a fine breather back, but he's a shitty pass-catching back and he needs big holes to succeed and bust through so I doubt he has much success on the Texans.

I had been far off David Johnson via his ADPs the last few seasons, but now he's a 10th, 11th, 12th round pick, and like it or not he's going to give you 225+ touches and could very possibly lead NFL RBs in routes run.

 

Honorable Mentions:

Leonard Fournete - Bucs

 

 

Quarterback

Dak Prescott

Matthew Stafford 

Cam Newton