big stop drafting them

 

Adam Thielen - Minnesota Vikings

ADP: WR21 | 49

I was all in on Thielen last year at his 4th round price tag.

This year, we are the opposite. Watching Thielen last year, once Justin Jefferson got assimilated into the offense like October, you were basically praying for a big play or a touchdown to save Thielen. That's what it felt like.

Thielen finished the year as the WR9 overall in fantasy (half ppr).

(Another caveat, why taking WRs early, the difference between him and WR35, Cole Beasley, was 3.5 FPPG, just sayin).

This was strictly due to his 14 touchdowns, 3rd in the NFL and would have led the league in most years. However, his 108 targets ranked 27th among WRs, his 74 catches were 24th, and his 925 yards 24th. If there was ever a more obvious outlier in which not to predict for next year, please comment down below what it was. Maybe the LeGarrette Blount year in New England.

You can compare the Calvin Ridley & Julio Jones situation to Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, but Ridley's ascension has taken 4 years, it took Jefferson about 4 games. The offense started running through Jefferson asap. He went from 5 targets/game to over 10/game over the 2H of the year.

Thielen had 5 volume games last year in which he had 8 catches or more. They came against HOU, SEA, DAL, JAC and NO. All shit pass defenses, especially at the time of the year he played them.

Listen to this. In the other 10 games he played, he had 4 catches or fewer in 9 of them. 3 catches or fewer in 7 of them. He had 60 or fewer receiving yards in 9 of 15 games. He was almost Tyler Lockett, but with touchdowns.

They do run a lot of RZ/EZ plays for him, but I think we'll slowly see some of them go to Jefferson. From Week 4-EOS, Jefferson has more RZ targets than Thielen, but like 70% of Thielen's turned into TDs, wont happen again.

Thielen will probably finish around where all those ranks were for him last year: in the low-end WR2/high-end WR3 range. As the 2nd passing option in a run-first offense, Thielen doesn't have much a of a ceiling. Guys going around the same range as him, (w/i 5 picks) i'd rather have = both Rams WRs, Mike Davis, Id take both Lamar and Kyler in QB leagues, and most of the sophomore WRs - Higgins, probably Golladay, Diontae Johnson.

 

D.J. Moore - Carolina Panthers

Current ADP: WR16 | 42

• Slow-paced offense
• Sam Darnold slow-paced, 2020 w/ Teddy very slow-paced as well

• C-Mac will be byke
• He'll still be getting a nice target share, but this offense is going to be slow, not throw a whole lot, and there's the chance that Sam Darnold is just bad. And 20-23% of low aDOT, maybe-inaccurate targets is a boring fantasy WR with very little overall upside.
• Even with Curtis Samuel leaving, it doesn't open up a ton of targets and yardage bc C-Mac is going to get his 110-120 targets.
• He's a player that will help your team, "not lose" but i dont think he helps you "win" enough to warrant anywhere near 3rd round capital, early/mid 4th.
• You can bet on DJ Moore just being so talented he overcomes all of this, or you can be a good fantasy football player, and not do that. 

 

JuJu-Smith Schuster - Pittsburgh Steelers

Current ADP: WR36 | 79.6

Whatever we once thought of JuJu as a young, up-and-coming stud WR is just purely false.

His success against man and press has been diminishing year-over-year and his most recent numbers per Matt Harmon's ReceptionPerception.com have him falling in the 4th and 6th percentile overall. Is he still good against zone, sure, but that's about it. He's Jarvis Landry, he's Cooper Kupp and he's going to be exactly whatever situation he's a part of.

This situation currently has two WRs that are already better at him in Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. 

JuJu had (8) 100-yard receiving games in 2018. He had (1) in 2019. He had 0 last year. Ben is deteriorating, they just drafted a running back with their 1st round pick, so they're going to be looking to run and play defense, which might sound dumb considering I was touting Diontae Johnson last year, and trust me I'm very aware of the risks involved with this whole offense. With DJ I believe in the player, so let that be known, it's a subjective thing for me on DJ, with JuJu U don't believe in the player nor the situation. 

He's an easy fade for me in 2021, regardless of his price tbh.

 

Honorable Mentions

Odell Beckham Jr. - Browns

Current ADP: WR27 || 64.8

What are y'all still doing drafting OBJ at pick 64 (6.04) lmao it's incredible.

He hasn't been good for fantasy football since 2016.

We just had a full year in 2019, he played 16 games and barely topped 1000 yards.  Last year, he played 7 games, his 16 game pace? 98 targets. Not 98 catches, 98 targets. 53 catches, 729 rec. yards and 6 touchdowns.

Yall are OBSSESSED with this hypothetical upside that is just so clearly not there. Y'all are OBSSESSED with OBJ's fast twitch muscle fibers from four years ago.

This is a wildly run-heavy offense, that is just clearly not going to feature him. STOP.

 

Laviska Shenault - Jaguars

WR45 | 9.02

This is more of a gut feeling, I just have a bad feeling about Viska this year statistically. I have no faith in Urban Meyer using him in any sort of capacity more than an oddly used weapon. Feel like he's going to get 4-6 opportunities/game, 1 or 2 of them being carries.

They bring in Etienne to also be a weapon. They sign Marvin Jones who's going to take away deep targets. And in 12 personnel, 2TE sets, I wouldn't be surprised if we just see DJ Chark and Marvin Jones out there as the two WRs.

Idk man, I just dont see myself having really any Viska inside the single-digit rounds of fantasy drafts.