Fantasy Football Week 5 - Notable WR/CB Matchups

October 5, 2017

All grading, route position %, etc is per PFF.

Everybody and their mother wants to know who Jalen Mills is covering in Week 5.
It'll be a combo of both Browns, Jaren and John, who run 36% and 34% of their routes from the right side of the field respectively, while Mills has defended the left side on 66% of his routes in 2017 although he did shadow OBJ last week but that's not normal for him. In that game, Mills was targeted 21 times, the highest number in a single game for any defender over the past 12 seasons (PFF).
Jalen Mills and his 4.61 40-yard time is tied for 3rd slowest among all charted CBs for PFF, while John Brown's 4.34 is tied for 5th fastest among WRs (not all CBs and WRs 40 times were listed). Jaron runs a 4.45 according to playerprofiler.com.
According to Mike Clay (ESPN) - Mills has been targeted 40 times on the season, 9 more than the next closest CB and has let up 82 FP this season, 19 more than the next closest CB.
Despite the bad numbers, Mills really isn't as bad as people assume. The volume alone will blemish his total numbers, but he's leading all CBs in the NFL in tackles and has made plenty of big plays for this Eagles defense in 2017 that don't show up on the stat sheet.
As I've said before, the volume for the Cardinals receivers should be there, but with a banged up o-line taking on Philly's plus pass rush, it might be hard for Palmer to sit in the pocked and wait for the deep routes to develop. Take that for what it is.

Both Buffalo CBs ranked inside PFF's top-14 ranked at the position, White ranked 4th overall, is fresh off slappin the NFL around on his way to Defensive Rookie of the month honors for September, while Gaines ranks 14th.
Green has ran 52% of his routes from the right side in 2017, White is exclusively on the left side of the field and same for Gaines, on the right.
Buffalo as a team is the 4th best pass defense in the NFL, allowing 6.0 yards per attempt and surrendering just one (1) touchdown for six (6) interceptions, while allowing just 13.5 points to opposing teams on average.
On average, they're allowing 5.5 catches, 66 yards and 0 touchdowns to opposing teams #1 WR.

Seattle's slot corner, Jeremy Lane, tweaked his groin in their Week 4 tilt with the Colts and is questionable for Week 5. If he does suit up, Kupp has the the "6th highest advantage" of the week according to his matchup per PFF.
The rookie, Kupp has graded out as a legitamte top-20 WR in 2017, right behind DeAndre Hopkins and ahead of Brandin Cooks and Larry Fitzgerald.
Kupp is on pace for 56-744-8 on the year, running 58% of his routes from the slot. A game where the Rams are favored by 1.5, with an over/under of 47.5, look for Kupp to take advantage of his matchup, or feast on UDFA Justin Coleman if Lane sits out.

Matthews gets another game without Corey Davis, while Decker and rookie Taywan Taylor have done next to nothing this year. Shard will get a matchup with Maxwell who ranks as the 12th worst CB overall and 5th worst LCB according to PFF.
Alternatively, Shard is the 5th highest rated RWR per PFF. He's tied with Jordy Nelson for 10th in the NFL with 0.44 fantasy points per route ruin on the year.
It's a downgrade if Mariota doesn't suit up, but he should see enough targets to cement him as a WR3 with upside in Week 5.

Take these rankings with a grain of salt.

Patrick Peterson (ARZ) is the only CB that has shadowed an opposing WR in all four weeks.
Xavier Rhodes (MIN) did not shadow in Week 1, but has in each of the last three weeks. Same with Morris Claiborne (NYJ).
The top five (5) rated PFF WRs in order are Stefon Diggs, Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, Keenan Allen and Doug Baldwin... they may be onto something here with their grading system.

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